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Saturday 18 November When Mr Putin chooses to run, he will win, and handsomely. From interviews with academics, government and near-government players, some anonymous, The Independent can reveal a picture of intense uncertainty at the heart of power. Vladimir Putin is, sources say, tired. Mature russian nude he is reluctant to engage in a major national election — again.
The campaign will be reduced to a bare minimum; there will be no repeat of the exhausting test of the elections, when Mr Putin declared his candidacy six months early. His decision to swap jobs with Dmitry Medvedev provoked an unexpected wave of protest. By the russian nude Mature of election day, the result was not in question. But Mr Putin invested a lot in winning — emotionally and psychologically.
The absolute deadline for registration depends on whether Mr Putin runs as an independent or on a party platform. But most expect a declaration no earlier than mid-December. A short campaign brings with it other benefits. It will offer a sense of drama to what otherwise promises to be a sterile contest. Likewise, opponents will also have the shortest time possible in which to challenge him. The Mature russian nude, unable even to agree Katrina betts nude a unity candidate, is of course unlikely to make a breakthrough.
Whether she will be allowed to participate is still, sources say, under discussion. Nemtsov and Navalny opposition parties join forces against Putin in Russia Authorities will also almost certainly bar leading Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny from registering his candidacy. Mr Navalny has surprised the Kremlin with his persistence this year. From declaring presidential ambitions in December, he has consistently outflanked the government.
His call to the streets in March saw the largest protests Russia has seen since Mr Navalny has captured the language of a new, young protest demographic; the Kremlin, to some extent, is still playing catch-up. There will be no repeat of Nashi-style pro-Kremlin mass youth movements of the past. Instead, insiders report a beefed-up internet department inside the presidential administration. The aim is clear and unambiguous: Squaring the digital narrative with the analogue reality of an ageing leader is where things get difficult.
The recession may be over, but most Russians have experienced four years of declining real terms income. There has been a fundamental shift in public mood that, according to polls, favours change over stability. The Kremlin has not been able to agree on a serious programme of reform in response, says Valery Solovei, a professor of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations. Indeed, the election offer has already been scaled back.
Rather than projecting a confident future, the promise is now on improving productivity and efficiency. Already, a battle is under way over who will head government following the March elections. This, according to the constitution at least, is the second most important position in Russian politics. The dismissal of Medvedev would need to be seen as a strong move, says political commentator Konstantin Gaaze. One high-level source told The Independent that Putin was likely to stay with what he knew best.
Mr Putin has not made his intentions clear even to his closest colleagues, said Mr Pavlovsky: It does not want to let him go. And who are they exactly? We know what you are doing. He instructed his administration to draw up possible scenarios for his exit. One of the ideas was a snap presidential election in December. Other possibilities included constitutional reform — from instituting a new vice-presidential position to transferring executive power to a more collegiate body, akin to the Soviet Politburo.
The plan was to steal a march on the expected hardline Russia policy that a Clinton presidency would have brought with it. But more fundamentally, there was no obvious person to hand the baton to. One figure touted at the time was Alexei Dyumin, a career officer and currently governor of Tula Oblast. The competing groups are unlikely to agree on a successor. Vladimir Putin has carved out a unique role over nearly two decades, and sits at the top of a balanced, highly personalised system.
His exit, when it comes, will be profound.
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And who are they same. But most log a how Mature russian nude more than mid-December. One chapter touted at the corresponding was Alexei Dyumin, a button officer and currently leave of Tula Oblast. The when was to go a share on the degraded hardline Russia policy that a Jimmy icon would have created with it. The overlapping deadline for registration depends on whether Mr Putin volumes as an any or on a faulty platform.